Sifuna Surges to Tie Ruto as Matiang’i Suffers Dramatic Poll Drop

President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied as Kenyans’ preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election, each with 31 percent support, according to an opinion poll that Trends Insight for Africa (TIFA) released on Thursday. Sifuna’s support has climbed sharply, from no measurable support in August 2022, September 2025, and November 2025 to 10 percent in May 2026, 15 percent in June, and 31 percent in November. Ruto’s support rose more gradually: he registered 16 per cent in September 2025 and 19 per cent in November that year, then reached 24 per cent in May and June 2026 before rising to 31 per cent in the latest poll. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who previously led the preference rankings, recorded the sharpest decline among prominent presidential hopefuls. His support fell from 32 percent in August 2022 to 21 percent in September 2025, 18 percent in November 2025, and 14 percent in both May and June 2026. It dropped again to five percent in November. Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka has also lost ground since reaching a high of 25 percent in November 2025. He drew 19 percent in May 2026, 13 percent in June, and nine percent in the latest poll. The regional results show Ruto leading in Central Rift with 59 percent, Coast with 40 percent, Northern with 62 percent, and Nyanza with 35 percent. TIFA found Sifuna ahead in Mt Kenya with 32 percent, Nairobi with 39 percent, South Rift with 31 percent, and Western with 55 percent. Kalonzo leads in Lower Eastern with 55 percent. The largest shares of undecided respondents came from Mt Kenya, at 21 percent, and Nairobi, at 17 percent. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s support has weakened since reaching nine per cent in May 2026. He received two percent in August 2022, six percent in September 2025, three percent in November 2025, seven percent in June 2026, and four percent in November. Support for other potential candidates has fallen from a peak of 14 per cent in September 2025 to one per cent in the latest survey. Undecided respondents made up 15 percent of the November sample, down from 20 percent in June, while four percent gave no response – a share that has remained relatively low and stable. TIFA interviewed 2,036 people in person at their homes between October 26 and November 5, drawing a nationally representative sample from nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western. Interviewers spoke mainly in Kiswahili, with some interviews conducted in English. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points, though that margin is higher for smaller sub-samples. The figures capture respondents’ stated preferences when TIFA conducted the poll; they do not predict the election result. Political alliances, campaign platforms, candidate announcements, and other developments before the polls could reshape the race. Sifuna’s rise to a joint lead stands out because he drew no measurable support in earlier survey periods. His latest rating puts him ahead of established presidential hopefuls Matiang’i, Kalonzo, and Gachagua. Ruto, meanwhile, has gained seven percentage points since June, when he drew 24 percent. The poll offers an early snapshot of a fluid presidential race, with Ruto and Sifuna sharing the lead while other contenders attract considerably less support nationwide. The post Sifuna Surges to Tie Ruto as Matiang’i Suffers Dramatic Poll Drop appeared first on Nairobi Wire .

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